Stick a Pin in it, It’s Done

I can't make change, all I have are quadrillions

Control Hoard Your Cash

Cash is a bad investment, right? Not as bad as penny stocks, perhaps, or California muni bonds, but certainly not much better.

Besides, can you even call holding cash “investing”? Does it fit the definition of using money to generate potential profitable returns?

It can, when deflation happens.

Simply spend enough time on this planet, and you’ll be conditioned to believe that prices and wages inevitably rise- and that what a dollar bought a year ago, it’ll buy slightly less of today.

2010 is an outlying economic year for many reasons, not the least of which is the possibility/certainty of deflation.

Well, that and the gargantuan government spending. Our apologies if we used the word “gargantuan” in a recent post: we’re running out of adjectives that denote bigness. According to the economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which spends an average of $2 per taxpayer per year), the consumer price index fell .1% last month, .2% in May, and .1% in April. Those numbers look miniscule, don’t they? Harmless, even. But keeping in mind that the numbers are several, and that they determine a trend, it might be time to start worrying. It’s hard to draw too many conclusions when the BLS only ratiocinates to one decimal place, but cumulatively, the above numbers tell us that prices have fallen somewhere between 2.5% and 5.4% in a mere 3 months.

Great news for spenders. Rotten news for savers. If that 3-month average were to maintain itself for a year, we’d be looking at a 20% decline in prices.

So what’s the downside to this? You’re complaining about lower prices? God, you really are a killjoy. You probably complain about how sweaty things get during sex, too.

It’s not that simple. Prices and wages usually move in lockstep.

So things are neither better nor worse than usual, then.

Not quite. Say you have a long-term obligation, like a 30-year fixed mortgage. One of the features people like about mortgages that last so long is that by the time you get to the end of the term, the payments will be tiny. They’ll be as large in nominal terms as they are today – fixed rate means if you pay $1000 a month in Year 1, you’ll pay $1000 in Year 30.

Go back to 2005, when annual inflation was close to 4.0%. That’s pretty close to the historical average, maybe a little higher. Say your monthly payment was $1000. If prices rose at 4% throughout the term of your loan, the final payment would be the equivalent of only $321 in constant dollars.

When deflation happens, those payments get progressively harder to make, not easier. During deflation, it’s great to be owed money, less great to owe it. Extended deflation makes banking less viable as an industry. If prices are dropping 20% annually, bank rates have to lower accordingly. That 1-year CD that pays barely 1% in nominal terms thus pays 21% in real terms. Banks aren’t in the habit of throwing money away, which means they’ll stop offering anything other than super-risky loans. If you can keep money in an ammo box buried in your backyard, and enjoy a real rate of return of 20%, banks outlive their usefulness.

A little inflation isn’t all that bad. You could almost argue that it’s crucial for a healthy economy, in that it gives people an incentive to lend and borrow (the latter in hopes of larger returns, the former with the comfort of guaranteed returns.) Deflation isn’t exactly a sign of a robust economy. Again, it usually means wages are decreasing on average, which upon further examination often means that wages are staying the same, just the number of people employed is decreasing, thus lowering the mean. The latest sustained period of deflation in this country’s history was from 1930 to 1933. Go ask your great-grandparents how much fun it was to escape the Great Plains while John Steinbeck wrote books about them and Woody Guthrie sang songs about their plight.

Thanks for the history lesson. How does this help me now?

Get out of that dying industry that you work in, where your shaky paycheck is sustained at the whim of your employer.
If you’re at the point where you’re looking at passive income to supplement or outperform your active income, a) nice going and b) don’t get locked into modest rates. Instead of a conservative money-market account, see what your bank is offering in terms of certificates of deposit. Don’t be shy about shopping around, either: there’s no rule that says you have to keep all your accounts at the same bank. In fact, almost no rich people do. Use the CD ladder technique, which manages to get your entire investment to pay long-term returns even though you’re only in it for the short term.

You want more details on that? You can wait for it to find its way into the rotation as our weekly free book excerpt, but by then the economy could be riding a hyperinflationary thermal for all we know. Or you can one-click your way here.

**This post was featured in Canajun Finances’ Best of Money Carnival #61.**

**This post is featured in the Carnival of Personal Finance #267**

Per capita

You're just a statistic.

You need to understand math to understand money. Not differential equations or sympleptic and contact topology, but a little rudimentary addition and division wouldn’t kill you. Division alone should get you through this week’s post.

If you want to grasp what the macroeconomic world means to you, both now and in the future, personalize it. Understand that “the government” doesn’t bail out Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac, or General Motors, or Chrysler, or Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America, or AIG, or Citigroup, or Wells Fargo, or Morgan Stanley, or Capital One. You do. More specifically and accurately, you bail out those companies’ executives and managers, and indirectly, their employees and customers. All economic transactions, if you strip away enough layers, are between individuals and/or groups of individuals.

It’s an obvious point, but one many people ignore. The next wealth created by government, any government, will be the first. Government redistributes. Or to be more fair, government bureaucrats and legislators redistribute. They act as intermediaries, taking assets (and liabilities) from some and giving to others. Sometimes government actors do like Robin Hood, taking from the rich and giving to the poor. Other times they’re like Ayn Rand’s Francisco D’Antonio, taking from the poor and giving to the rich (or as he calls them, the unproductive and the productive respectively.) Most often, government actors confiscate from the middle-class and redistribute to the similarly situated. While taking their cut, of course –which they distribute among each other. Money is never money unless someone’s possessing it. A non-human entity, whether a King Charles spaniel or a building, literally has no use for money.

Not to get too philosophical, but there’s no such thing as “collective” economic action as distinguished from the accumulation of our individual actions. National economic pain or prosperity – consumer confidence, or whatever else you feel comfortable calling it – equals yours plus mine plus your neighbor’s plus her neighbor’s.

With a federal budget dealing in numbers far beyond anyone’s daily grasp, it’s easy to liken economic data to astronomical data. For instance, Neptune is 2.7 billion miles away. But even if you understand every word in that sentence, and know the sentence makes sense, can you visualize exactly what it means? Neptune is farther than Tuva, farther than Antarctica, farther than the Moon. Yet is there a way to understand that in physical, personal terms?

If you drive 20,000 miles a year, and drive from the age of 16 to the age of 86, that cumulative distance is to the distance to Neptune as a mile is to the distance across the United States. That’s still complicated, but it’s about the best we can do. With national dollar figures, we can see how our government leaders’ failure to restrain themselves fiscally impacts us directly. Two little words: per capita.

“Trillion” and “million” are almost homonyms, which is where their similarities end. A trillion is to a million as the population of the United States is to the population of a subway train. Or as LeBron James’ salary is to your average 5-year old’s allowance. That doesn’t stop politicians from insulting your intelligence by proposing budgets in trillions while promising cuts in millions.

In the remainder of this week’s post, we’re going to divide every number by 300 million, and give you an idea of how government spending affects you personally.

The preceding anecdote refers to a speech the president gave last April, 2 months after signing the ($2,623) American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a/k/a the (first) stimulus bill, and encouraged austerity among his inner cadre:

“I’m asking for all of (the cabinet secretaries) to identify at least (33¢) in additional cuts to their administrative budgets.”

Presumably, he means annually. Let’s examine each department’s budget:

Health & Human Services $2,818
Defense $2,170
Agriculture $317
Veterans’ Affairs $292
Transportation $244
Education $209 (excluding $323 in stimulus funding)
Homeland Security $173
Justice $154
Housing/Urban Development $146
Energy $ 80
Interior $67
Treasury $ 65
State $55
Commerce $47
Labor $47

You can see what a gigantic, gaping hole a 33¢ reduction would leave in the coffers of the tattered vestiges of a once-robust Department of Health & Human Services. Last fiscal year, the United States’ federal deficit increased by $6333. (Not to $6333, by $6333. To would be $48,167. Are we getting close to your net income yet?) That last number is somewhat misleading, because many of us are either too young or too old or too disabled or too incarcerated to work. Per taxpayer, the number is closer to $60,000. The interest you incur on that debt is $1,513, or 18% of the total. You’ve also borrowed $12,502 in Treasury securities, at least a third of which has gone to Chinese government leaders investing on behalf of their citizens. You paid $50 to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The preceding president appropriated $45 of your money to bail out General Motors and Chrysler – the latter of which was owned by a private capital management firm whose members were all billionaires or close to it.

Stop complaining, Citizen. This is all for the Greater Good. Repeat after us: The Greater Good.

This is ostensibly a personal finance blog, so if you’re wondering how this talk affects you, understand that electing fiscally ascetic politicians can mean thousands of dollars to your bottom line. Taking the effort to find them, vote for them and maybe even volunteer for them will help Control Your Cash more than clipping any coupon will.